38 Week Extension Study to CAIN457C2303
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2011-01-31, after 2010-03-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “efficacy”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 100 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 235 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: recurrentplaceboto assessassess thetreated
Phrases that lowered it: study tomulticenterrandomizedweekto standard -
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 100 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 213 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 235 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- secukinumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Phase III Study in Refractory Behcet's Disease NCT00995709 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy of AIN457 in Patients With Quiescent Non-infectious Uveitis NCT01090310 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated
- Safety and Efficacy of AIN457 in Patients With Quiescent Non-infectious Uveitis NCT01032915 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials terminated
- Safety and Efficacy of AIN457 in Patients With Active Non-infectious Uveitis NCT01095250 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials terminated
- Safety and Efficacy of AIN457 in Noninfectious Uveitis NCT00685399 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.