CT 327 in the Treatment of Psoriasis Vulgaris

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 7% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (240 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ctpatientsstudy entrydiagnosispsoriasis
  Phrases that lowered it: topicalvulgarisand safetytwice dailycream
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase III Trial To Evaluate The Efficacy And Safety Of MC2-01 Cream Compared To CAL/BDP Gel and Vehicle In Plaque Psoriasis Subjects NCT07357831 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• This Trial is a Randomised, Multicentre, Investigator-blind, Vehicle and Comparator-controlled, Parallel-group Trial With the Purpose of Evaluation Efficacy, Safety and Convenience of the MC2-01 Cream NCT03802344 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• A Maximal Use Trial Evaluating the Pharmacokinetic Profile of MC2-01 Cream NCT03462927 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Calcipotriol Plus Betamethasone Dipropionate Gel Compared With Tacalcitol Ointment and the Gel Vehicle Alone in Patients With Psoriasis Vulgaris NCT00670241 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Trial Evaluating Efficacy and Safety of MC2-01 Cream NCT03308799 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.