A Phase III Trial To Evaluate The Efficacy And Safety Of MC2-01 Cream Compared To CAL/BDP Gel and Vehicle In Plaque Psoriasis Subjects

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-08-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectdose ofmonthsacutefirst dose
  Phrases that lowered it: psoriasisand safetyefficacysafety ofplaque
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 30 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, Pharmacodynamics, and Immunogenicity of CC-90006 in Subjects With Mild to Moderate Plaque-type Psoriasis NCT03337022 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• LEO 80185 in the Treatment of Psoriasis Vulgaris on the Non-scalp Regions of the Body (Trunk and/or Limbs) NCT01188928 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A Maximal Use Trial Evaluating the Pharmacokinetic Profile of MC2-01 Cream NCT03462927 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• This Trial is a Randomised, Multicentre, Investigator-blind, Vehicle and Comparator-controlled, Parallel-group Trial With the Purpose of Evaluation Efficacy, Safety and Convenience of the MC2-01 Cream NCT03802344 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• Study Comparing AM001 Cream to Vehicle in the Treatment of Plaque Psoriasis NCT01938599 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.