Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, Pharmacodynamics, and Immunogenicity of CC-90006 in Subjects With Mild to Moderate Plaque-type Psoriasis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (139 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-04-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subject hastherapythe subjectcellcancer
  Phrases that lowered it: psoriasisplaquepharmacokineticsmoderatedermatitis
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 40 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 149 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Safety Study of CC-92252 in Healthy Adult Subjects and Adult Subjects With Psoriasis NCT03971825 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials terminated
• A Phase III Trial To Evaluate The Efficacy And Safety Of MC2-01 Cream Compared To CAL/BDP Gel and Vehicle In Plaque Psoriasis Subjects NCT07357831 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate Safety and Efficacy of Oral MP1032 in Psoriasis Patients NCT02908347 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• To Compare Pharmacokinetics, Efficacy, and Safety of CT-P17 With Humira in Patients With Moderate to Severe Chronic Plaque Psoriasis NCT05495568 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• A Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Apremilast (CC-10004) in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Plaque Psoriasis of the Scalp NCT03123471 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.