A Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Apremilast (CC-10004) in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Plaque Psoriasis of the Scalp

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (238 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-01-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationcelltherapysitumalignancy
  Phrases that lowered it: psoriasisplaqueand safetyscalpefficacy and
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 20.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 60 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 15645 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase 3B, Open-label, Single-arm Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Apremilast, in Subjects With Plaque Psoriasis That is Not Adequately Controlled by Topical Therapy NCT03930186 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate Safety and Effectiveness of Oral Apremilast (CC-10004) in Patients With Moderate to Severe Plaque Psoriasis. NCT01232283 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Monocyte Biomarkers in Moderate to Severe Plaque Psoriasis Subjects Treated With Apremilast NCT03442088 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• A Study of Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of Apremilast (CC-10004) in Pediatric Subjects With Moderate to Severe Plaque Psoriasis NCT02576678 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of Apremilast (CC-10004) in Subjects With Moderate-to-Severe Plaque-Type Psoriasis (Core Study) NCT00773734 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.