Monocyte Biomarkers in Moderate to Severe Plaque Psoriasis Subjects Treated With Apremilast
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-09-30, after 2018-06-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: subjectsubjectschronicrandomizationhistory of
Phrases that lowered it: psoriasispatientstopicalof normalweeks -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 19.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 18 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 60 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 86 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 16.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 18 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 54137 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 19142 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 19.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 1.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- apremilast
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Phase 3B, Open-label, Single-arm Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Apremilast, in Subjects With Plaque Psoriasis That is Not Adequately Controlled by Topical Therapy NCT03930186 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- A Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Apremilast (CC-10004) in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Plaque Psoriasis of the Scalp NCT03123471 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Study of Apremilast in Atopic or Contact Dermatitis NCT00931242 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
- A Study of Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of Apremilast (CC-10004) in Pediatric Subjects With Moderate to Severe Plaque Psoriasis NCT02576678 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety Study of Apremilast to Treat Active Psoriatic Arthritis (PsA) NCT01307423 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.