A Study to Investigate Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of AZD1446 Administered for 4 Weeks in Elderly Healthy Volunteers

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 7% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2009-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: tolerabilitythe safetypharmacokineticsfemaleevaluate the
  Phrases that lowered it: volunteershealthyadministrationjudgedto investigate
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 365 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: basic science (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 711 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Assess Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics After Single Doses of AZD1446 to Healthy Volunteers NCT00803855 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics After Single and Multiple Doses of AZD1446 to Japanese Subject NCT01021189 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Study to Investigate Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics With Single and Multiple Ascending Doses of AZD1446 NCT00902993 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of Modified-Release Formulations of AZD1446 After Oral Single and Repeated Doses NCT01199315 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics After Single Doses of AZD2516 to Healthy Volunteers NCT00754715 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.