A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of Modified-Release Formulations of AZD1446 After Oral Single and Repeated Doses

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 7% of the time (289 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 343 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: safety tolerabilityplacebodouble blindcontrolledtolerability and
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyvolunteerspharmacokineticssinglemale
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 876 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: basic science (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 80 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Assess Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics After Single and Multiple Doses of AZD1446 to Japanese Subject NCT01021189 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Study to Investigate Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of AZD2423 Multiple Doses in Healthy Japanese Volunteers NCT01233830 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of AZD1446 Administered for 4 Weeks in Elderly Healthy Volunteers NCT00997308 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Assess the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of AZD5213 After Single and Multiple Ascending Oral Doses in Healthy Young and Elderly Japanese Subjects NCT01335451 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics After Single Dose of AZD2516 to Japanese Healthy Subjects NCT00972049 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.