Neural Substrates in Nicotine Withdrawal
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (407 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2012-10-31, after 2010-01-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: painparkinson diseasecognitiveheaddiagnosis
Phrases that lowered it: asthmanormalvisitlivereye -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 79 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Keywords listed: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 83.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past trials: 109 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 109 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 9.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 79 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 83 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 13 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 83.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 19.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- tolcapone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Effect of Galantamine on Smoking Abstinence NCT01548638 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- Effect of Galantamine on Short-term Abstinence NCT01669538 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
- Effects of ABT-089 on Smoking Abstinence Symptoms and Reward NCT01756053 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials terminated
- Pharmacogenetics of Nicotine Addiction Treatment NCT01314001 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
- Effect of Ramelteon on Smoking Abstinence NCT02560324 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.