Acute Graft-versus-Host Disease Treatment (BMT CTN 0802)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 28% for any early termination, 19% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (67 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2013-06-30, after 2010-01-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: gvhddonorcellstemtransplant
Phrases that lowered it: kgdaydays beforepatients whoor planned -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 20% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 21.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 19 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- not given (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 15 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 20% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 19
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 8525 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2459 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 96.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 21.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- immunology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- mycophenolate mofetil, mycophenolic acid
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study to Evaluate Steroid-free Treatment for Standard-Risk aGVHD (BMT CTN 1501) NCT02806947 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
- Early Treatment of Acute Graft Versus Host Disease With Bone Marrow-Derived Mesenchymal Stem Cells and Corticosteroids NCT02379442 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials terminated
- Phase II Study of Tocilizumab for Patients With Glucocorticoid-refractory Acute GVHD After Allogeneic Hematopoetic Stem Cell Transplant (HSCT) NCT01757197 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
- A Pilot Study of Alpha-1-Antitrypsin (AAT) in Steroid Refractory Acute Graft vs Host Disease NCT01700036 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
- T-Guard as Treatment for Steroid Refractory Acute GVHD (BMT CTN 1802) NCT04128319 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.