Early Treatment of Acute Graft Versus Host Disease With Bone Marrow-Derived Mesenchymal Stem Cells and Corticosteroids
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 23% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (243 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2017-12-13, after 2015-02-23 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-12-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: transplantgvhddonoracutecell
Phrases that lowered it: participantshealthyvolunteerssubjectstwice -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: 99 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past trials: 279 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 11 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
-
Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 4 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 4 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 99 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 279 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 4.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 11 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- immunology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Acute Graft-versus-Host Disease Treatment (BMT CTN 0802) NCT01002742 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
- BMT Autologous MSCs for GvHD NCT02359929 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
- Study of BEGEDINA® vs Conventional Treatment for Treating Steroid-Resistant Acute GvHD NCT02411084 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
- A Prospective Study of Remestemcel-L, Ex-vivo Cultured Adult Human Mesenchymal Stromal Cells, for the Treatment of Pediatric Participants Who Have Failed to Respond to Steroid Treatment for Acute Graft-Versus-Host Disease (aGVHD) NCT02336230 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
- Phase II Study of Tocilizumab for Patients With Glucocorticoid-refractory Acute GVHD After Allogeneic Hematopoetic Stem Cell Transplant (HSCT) NCT01757197 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.