Golimumab in Rheumatoid Arthritis Participants With an Inadequate Response to Etanercept (ENBREL) or Adalimumab (HUMIRA)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: or equalequal tofailuremalignancytreatment with
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsand safetyto evaluateevaluate thevisit
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 60.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 11142 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, musculoskeletal: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• An Effectiveness and Safety Study of Intravenous Golimumab in Patients With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis Despite Treatment With Methotrexate Therapy NCT00973479 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
• Subcutaneous Golimumab (GLM) Plus DMARDs for Rheumatoid Arthritis, Followed by Intravenous/Subcutaneous GLM Strategy (P06129 AM2) NCT00975130 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• A Golimumab Phase 3b, Multicenter, Assessment of Intravenous Efficacy in Rheumatoid Arthritis Subjects Who Have Diminished Disease Control Despite Treatment With Infliximab (REMICADE®) NCT01962974 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials terminated
• A Study of the Safety and Efficacy of CNTO 148 (Golimumab) in Children With Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis (JIA) and Multiple Joint Involvement Who Have Poor Response to Methotrexate (GO KIDS) NCT01230827 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials terminated
• A Safety and Efficacy Study of Golimumab (CNTO 148) in Patients With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis Despite Methotrexate Therapy NCT00727987 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.