A Golimumab Phase 3b, Multicenter, Assessment of Intravenous Efficacy in Rheumatoid Arthritis Subjects Who Have Diminished Disease Control Despite Treatment With Infliximab (REMICADE®)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: kgsubjectsscreeninghistoryweight
  Phrases that lowered it: weekscounttreatmentor activetherapy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 76 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Subcutaneous Golimumab (GLM) Plus DMARDs for Rheumatoid Arthritis, Followed by Intravenous/Subcutaneous GLM Strategy (P06129 AM2) NCT00975130 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• Golimumab in Rheumatoid Arthritis Participants With an Inadequate Response to Etanercept (ENBREL) or Adalimumab (HUMIRA) NCT01004432 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• A Study of the Safety and Efficacy of CNTO 148 (Golimumab) in Children With Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis (JIA) and Multiple Joint Involvement Who Have Poor Response to Methotrexate (GO KIDS) NCT01230827 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate the Pharmacokinetics, Efficacy and Safety of Intravenous Golimumab in Pediatric Participants With Active Polyarticular Course Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis Despite Methotrexate Therapy NCT02277444 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
• An Effectiveness and Safety Study of Intravenous Golimumab in Patients With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis Despite Treatment With Methotrexate Therapy NCT00973479 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.