Palivizumab for Prevention of Severe Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection in Russian Children

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (370 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: or equalequal tosubjectsas determinedthe investigator
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacyto severewill receiveopen labeldaily
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 57 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 2 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Assess the Safety and Effectiveness of Palivizumab Administered to Children at High Risk of Severe Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Infection in the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus NCT02968173 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety of MEDI8897 for the Prevention of Medically Attended Respiratory Syncytial Virus(RSV) Lower Respiratory Track Infection (LRTI) in High-risk Children NCT03959488 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• Study of a Single Intramuscular Dose of Nirsevimab in the Prevention of Hospitalizations Due to Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Infection in Healthy Term and Preterm Infants During the First Year of Life NCT05437510 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• Clesrovimab (MK-1654) in Infants and Children at Increased Risk for Severe Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Disease (MK-1654-007) NCT04938830 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• A Study to Learn About the Safety and Immune Activity of RSVpreF in Children 2 to <18 Years of Age NCT05900154 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.