Study Evaluating Multiple Ascending Doses Of ATN-103 In Japanese Subjects With Rheumatoid Arthritis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 7% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (41 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: 000time ofcellactivesafety tolerability
  Phrases that lowered it: subjectsmultiplerheumatoidarthritisra
• Design: factorial (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, musculoskeletal: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Dose Escalation Study to Assess Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of ASP2409 Following a Single Intravenous Dose in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis on Methotrexate NCT02171143 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• A Study Investigating the Efficacy and Safety of Upadacitinib (ABT-494) Given With Methotrexate (MTX) in Adults With Rheumatoid Arthritis Who Have Had an Inadequate Response to MTX Alone NCT02066389 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Pharmacokinetics, Safety, and Immunogenicity Study of Abatacept Administered Subcutaneously to Treat Rheumatoid Arthritis in Japanese Patients NCT01001832 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• Dose Optimisation Study of ART621 in Subjects Diagnosed With Rheumatoid Arthritis Taking Methotrexate NCT00854685 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of ASP015K in Moderate to Severe Rheumatoid Arthritis Subjects Who Have Had an Inadequate Response to Methotrexate NCT01554696 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.