A Study Investigating the Efficacy and Safety of Upadacitinib (ABT-494) Given With Methotrexate (MTX) in Adults With Rheumatoid Arthritis Who Have Had an Inadequate Response to MTX Alone

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-07-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subject hassubjectsscreeningthe safetysafety and
  Phrases that lowered it: ulnweekscorticosteroidsresponseinhaled
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 46 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 20 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 100 (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Compare Upadacitinib (ABT-494) Monotherapy to Methotrexate (MTX) Monotherapy in Adults With Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) Who Have Not Previously Taken Methotrexate NCT02706873 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• Proof-of-Concept Study With BMS-817399 to Treat Moderate to Severe Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT01404585 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• A Dose Escalation Study to Assess Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of ASP2409 Following a Single Intravenous Dose in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis on Methotrexate NCT02171143 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3 Study to Compare Upadacitinib to Abatacept in Subjects With Rheumatoid Arthritis on Stable Dose of Conventional Synthetic Disease- Modifying Antirheumatic Drugs (csDMARDs) Who Have an Inadequate Response or Intolerance to Biologic DMARDs NCT03086343 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess Safety and Efficacy of ASP015K in Participants With Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) Who Had an Inadequate Response or Intolerance to Methotrexate (MTX) NCT03660059 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.