Proof-of-Concept Study With BMS-817399 to Treat Moderate to Severe Rheumatoid Arthritis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectsubjectsbmsto assessmoderate
  Phrases that lowered it: carcinomaskincountcellcirrhosis
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 95 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 301 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study Investigating the Efficacy and Safety of Upadacitinib (ABT-494) Given With Methotrexate (MTX) in Adults With Rheumatoid Arthritis Who Have Had an Inadequate Response to MTX Alone NCT02066389 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• A Dose Escalation Study to Assess Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of ASP2409 Following a Single Intravenous Dose in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis on Methotrexate NCT02171143 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of the Effectiveness and Safety of Two Dosing Regimens of Olokizumab (OKZ), Compared to Placebo, in Subjects With Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) Who Are Taking Methotrexate But Have Active Disease NCT02760368 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of the Efficacy and Safety of Two Dosing Regimens of Olokizumab (OKZ), Compared to Placebo, in Subjects With Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) Who Were Taking an Existing Medication Called a Tumour Necrosis Factor Alpha Inhibitor But Had Active Disease NCT02760433 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of the Efficacy and Safety of Two Dosing Regimens of Olokizumab (OKZ), Compared to Placebo and Adalimumab, in Subjects With Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) Who Are Taking Methotrexate But Have Active Disease NCT02760407 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.