Daily Everolimus in Combination With Trastuzumab and Vinorelbine in HER2/Neu Positive Women With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: everolimusmetastaticcarcinomasurvivalprogressive
  Phrases that lowered it: breast cancerher2trastuzumabphase iiimetastatic breast
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 214 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 15 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Everolimus in Combination With Trastuzumab and Paclitaxel in the Treatment of HER2 Positive Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT00876395 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• Trastuzumab and Vinorelbine in Advanced Breast Cancer NCT01185509 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated
• LUX-Breast 1: BIBW 2992 (Afatinib) in HER2-positive Metastatic Breast Cancer Patients After One Prior Herceptin Treatment NCT01125566 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Open-label, Phase II, Study of Everolimus Plus Letrozole in Postmenopausal Women With ER+, HER2- Metastatic or Locally Advanced Breast Cancer NCT01698918 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Dose Finding Study for Combination of Capecitabine, Lapatinib and Vinorelbine in Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01238029 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.