Open-label, Phase II, Study of Everolimus Plus Letrozole in Postmenopausal Women With ER+, HER2- Metastatic or Locally Advanced Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-01-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerher2metastaticadvancedlocally
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andsafety ofthe efficacyinvestigate
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 12558 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 489 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 44052 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase II Study of Everolimus in Combination With Exemestane Versus Everolimus Alone Versus Capecitabine in Advance Breast Cancer. NCT01783444 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• 4EVER - Efficacy, Safety, Health Economics, Translational Research of Postmenopausal Women With Estrogen Receptor Positive Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01626222 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Everolimus in Combination With Exemestane in the Treatment of Postmenopausal Women With Estrogen Receptor Positive Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer Who Are Refractory to Letrozole or Anastrozole NCT00863655 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Everolimus in Combination With Trastuzumab and Paclitaxel in the Treatment of HER2 Positive Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT00876395 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• Everolimus Combined With Anti-estrogen Therapy in Hormone-Receptor-Positive HER-2 Negative Advanced Breast Cancer NCT02291913 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.