4EVER - Efficacy, Safety, Health Economics, Translational Research of Postmenopausal Women With Estrogen Receptor Positive Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticbraineverolimuslocally advancedcancer
  Phrases that lowered it: breast canceropen labelefficacyand safetypositive
• Sponsor's past trials: 401 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 291 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase II Study of Everolimus in Combination With Exemestane Versus Everolimus Alone Versus Capecitabine in Advance Breast Cancer. NCT01783444 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Everolimus in Combination With Exemestane in the Treatment of Postmenopausal Women With Estrogen Receptor Positive Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer Who Are Refractory to Letrozole or Anastrozole NCT00863655 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Open-label, Phase II, Study of Everolimus Plus Letrozole in Postmenopausal Women With ER+, HER2- Metastatic or Locally Advanced Breast Cancer NCT01698918 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Everolimus Combined With Anti-estrogen Therapy in Hormone-Receptor-Positive HER-2 Negative Advanced Breast Cancer NCT02291913 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Study in Post-menopausal Women With Hormone Receptor Positive, HER2-negative Advanced Breast Cancer NCT03176238 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.