Temsirolimus (Torisel®) and Erlotinib (Tarceva®) in Platinum-Refractory/Ineligible, Advanced, Squamous Cell Carcinoma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2012-12-31, after 2009-12-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellradiationsquamousheaderlotinib
Phrases that lowered it: aminotransferaseplatinumefficacycombinationtreatment -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 27.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 15 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 7 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 7 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 15 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1225 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 518 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 98.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 27.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- erlotinib, temsirolimus
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Efficacy Study of Temsirolimus to Treat Head and Neck Cancer NCT01172769 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
- Carboplatin, Paclitaxel, Cetuximab, and Erlotinib Hydrochloride in Treating Patients With Metastatic or Recurrent Head and Neck Squamous Cell Cancer NCT01316757 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
- Temsirolimus + Weekly Paclitaxel + Carboplatin for Recurrent or Metastatic Head and Neck Squamous Cell Cancer (HNSCC) NCT01016769 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
- Chemotherapy With Cetuximab in Treating Patients With Recurrent or Metastatic Head and Neck Cancer NCT01289522 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
- Combination Chemotherapy With or Without Erlotinib Hydrochloride in Treating Patients With Metastatic or Recurrent Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Head and Neck NCT01064479 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.