Efficacy Study of Temsirolimus to Treat Head and Neck Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 18% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chemotherapyeffectivecancerto determinehead
  Phrases that lowered it: open labeltrialbasedaccordingclinical
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 15 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 1286 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Temsirolimus (Torisel®) and Erlotinib (Tarceva®) in Platinum-Refractory/Ineligible, Advanced, Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT01009203 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials terminated
• Temsirolimus + Weekly Paclitaxel + Carboplatin for Recurrent or Metastatic Head and Neck Squamous Cell Cancer (HNSCC) NCT01016769 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• A Study of Tislelizumab in Combination With Investigational Agents in Participants With Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT05909904 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Docetaxel and S-1 in Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC) NCT00805012 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Determine the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Preliminary Efficacy of ABBV-368 Plus Tilsotolimod and Other Therapy Combinations in Participants With Recurrent/Metastatic Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT04196283 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.