Multi-centre UK Study of the Acetylcholinesterase Inhibitor Donepezil in Early Dementia Associated With Parkinson's Disease
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (276 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2014-09-30, after 2013-01-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientscoreplacebobrainparkinson disease
Phrases that lowered it: participantsimpairmentmildcognitivedrug -
Collaborators: 10 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 10 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 78.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 10 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 5 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 10 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 8883 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1298 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 78.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 14.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- donepezil
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Multidisciplinary Study of Novel NMDA Modulation for Neurodegenerative Disorder NCT04470037 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
- Imaging Non-motor Symptoms of Parkinson's Disease by Novel 18F-DTBZ and Florbetapir F-18 PET NCT02039024 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- A Trial of 18F-AV-133 and 18F-AV-45 Positron Emission Tomography (PET) NCT01503944 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- Efficacy of RIVAstigmine on Motor, Cognitive and Behavioural Impairment in Progressive Supranuclear Palsy NCT02839642 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
- ANAVEX2-73 Study in Parkinson's Disease Dementia NCT03774459 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.