Efficacy of RIVAstigmine on Motor, Cognitive and Behavioural Impairment in Progressive Supranuclear Palsy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (276 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-11-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectonsetchronicdefinedof screening
  Phrases that lowered it: judgedinvestigatorexaminationmedicationperiod
• Minimum age: 41 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 75 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 27.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 90.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 80 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 10649 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Davunetide for the Treatment of Progressive Supranuclear Palsy NCT01110720 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• ANAVEX2-73 Study in Parkinson's Disease Dementia NCT03774459 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• Davunetide (AL-108) in Predicted Tauopathies - Pilot Study NCT01056965 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Study Evaluating Efficacy of Pirepemat on Falls Frequency in Patients With Parkinson's Disease (PD) NCT05258071 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Tolerability and Safety of Azilect in Subjects With Progressive Supranuclear Palsy NCT01187888 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.