Efficacy and Safety Study of ABT-288 in Subjects With Mild-to-Moderate Alzheimer's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 55 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 36 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimeraddementiamild tosubject has
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andevaluate thesafety ofto evaluate
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 22 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 72.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 90 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety Study of ABT-384 in Subjects With Mild-to-Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT01137526 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study for Subjects With Mild-to-Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT00948909 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of ABT-126 in Subjects With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT01527916 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of ABT-126 in Subjects With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease on Stable Doses of Acetylcholinesterase Inhibitors NCT01549834 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability and the Effects on Cerebrospinal Fluid Spectrin Breakdown Product-145 Levels of ABT-957 in Subjects With Mild Alzheimer's Disease and Mild Cognitive Impairment NCT02573740 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.