Efficacy and Safety Study of ABT-384 in Subjects With Mild-to-Moderate Alzheimer's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimerdementiaadmoderatecognitive
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theexaminationto evaluategood healthin good
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 41 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 55 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 24 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 90 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 73.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety Study of ABT-288 in Subjects With Mild-to-Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT01018875 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of ABT-126 in Subjects With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT01527916 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study for Subjects With Mild-to-Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT00948909 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of ABT-126 in Subjects With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease on Stable Doses of Acetylcholinesterase Inhibitors NCT01549834 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• A Phase 1 Study of the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of ABT-126 in Subjects With Alzheimer's Disease NCT01482845 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.