Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of AFQ056 in Patients With Huntington's Disease in Reducing Chorea

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: doubletolerabilityplacebo controlledblind placeboimpairment
  Phrases that lowered it: multiplepatients withcriteria patientsfemaledisease
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 30 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 193 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Randomized, Placebo Controlled Study Of The Efficacy And Safety Of PF-02545920 In Subjects With Huntington's Disease NCT02197130 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of Valbenazine for the Treatment of Chorea Associated With Huntington Disease NCT04102579 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• A Dose Range Finding Study With Open-Label Extension to Evaluate the Safety of Oral LMI070/Branaplam in Early Manifest Huntington's Disease NCT05111249 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials terminated
• Study Evaluating The Safety, Tolerability And Brain Function Of 2 Doses Of PF-0254920 In Subjects With Early Huntington's Disease NCT01806896 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Open Label Extension Study To Investigate Long Term Safety, Tolerability And Efficacy Of Pf-02545920 In Subjects With Huntington's Disease Who Completed Study A8241021 NCT02342548 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.