A Dose Range Finding Study With Open-Label Extension to Evaluate the Safety of Oral LMI070/Branaplam in Early Manifest Huntington's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-10-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1417 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 25 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: earlyprotocolriskdiseasecondition
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantpharmacokineticsscreeningopen label
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 160 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of AFQ056 in Patients With Huntington's Disease in Reducing Chorea NCT01019473 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials terminated
• Study Exploring Safety, Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic of BN82451 in Male Huntington's Disease Patients NCT02231580 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of PTC518 in Participants With Huntington's Disease (HD) NCT05358717 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• Study Evaluating The Safety, Tolerability And Brain Function Of 2 Doses Of PF-0254920 In Subjects With Early Huntington's Disease NCT01806896 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Study of WVE-003 in Patients With Huntington's Disease NCT05032196 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.