Study Exploring Safety, Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic of BN82451 in Male Huntington's Disease Patients
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2016-03-31, after 2014-09-01 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 20.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: msdsm ivpriorprostatepatients with
Phrases that lowered it: daysulnevidence ormoderatetimes -
Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 12 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 77 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 70 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 20 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 70 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 77 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 20.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 12 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study to Assess the Safety, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of MBF-015 in Huntington's Disease Patients NCT06469853 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- A Phase II Safety and Tolerability Study With SEN0014196 NCT01521585 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
- Apathy Cure Through Bupropion in Huntington's Disease NCT01914965 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
- DNS-7801 vs. Placebo in Parkinson's Disease NCT03306329 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
- BTRX-246040 Study in Participants With Parkinson's Disease With Motor Fluctuations NCT03608371 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.