Study to Assess the Safety, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of MBF-015 in Huntington's Disease Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-12-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientmripriortreatmentsuicidal
  Phrases that lowered it: participantmedical historyparticipantsevaluate theto evaluate
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 25 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 2 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study Exploring Safety, Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic of BN82451 in Male Huntington's Disease Patients NCT02231580 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials terminated
• A Clinical Study in Participants With Huntington's Disease (HD) to Assess Efficacy and Safety of Three Oral Doses of Laquinimod NCT02215616 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
• A Phase II Safety and Tolerability Study With SEN0014196 NCT01521585 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• A Study in Subjects With Late Prodromal & Early Manifest HD to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, pk, and Efficacy of Pepi NCT02481674 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of OMS643762 in Subjects With Huntington's Disease NCT02074410 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.