Study of Epicutaneously Applied Ketoprofen Transfersome® Gel With or Without Combination With Oral Celecoxib for the Treatment of Muscle Pain Induced by Eccentric Exercise

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (544 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: painulncarcinomacelltherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: the effectgeleffect ofperiodclinical study
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 25798 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 2634 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Etoricoxib for the Treatment of Muscle Pain and Inflammation Induced by Eccentric Exercise NCT01271348 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Ketoprofen 10% Cream for Treatment of Pain Associated With Mild to Moderate Acute Soft Tissue Injury NCT00765700 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Clinical Trial With Diclofenac Sodium Medicated Plaster in Patients With Impact Injuries of the Limbs NCT04976088 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Effectiveness and Tolerability of Tapentadol Hydrochloride in Subjects With Severe Pain Due to Osteoarthritis Taking WHO Step III Analgesics But Showing a Lack of Tolerability. NCT00982280 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy and Safety of Etoricoxib/Betamethasone Combination in Acute Bursitis, Tendinitis and Synovitis NCT07328022 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.