Ketoprofen 10% Cream for Treatment of Pain Associated With Mild to Moderate Acute Soft Tissue Injury

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 7% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (238 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2009-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: injurypainacuteassociatedpatient
  Phrases that lowered it: productsrhinitismoderateand safetyasthma
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 11 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Epicutaneously Applied Ketoprofen Transfersome® Gel With or Without Combination With Oral Celecoxib for the Treatment of Muscle Pain Induced by Eccentric Exercise NCT01020279 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• MRX-7EAT Etodolac-Lidocaine Topical Patch in the Treatment of Ankle Sprains NCT01198834 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Proof-of-concept Study of NSAID Hydrogel Patch in Treatment of Acute Pain NCT02729207 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy of Lidocaine Patch in Acute Musculoskeletal Pain in the Emergency Department NCT03571737 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of SST 0225, a Topical Ibuprofen Cream, in the Treatment of Pain Associated With Acute Ankle Sprain NCT01874626 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.