Efficacy of Lidocaine Patch in Acute Musculoskeletal Pain in the Emergency Department

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-01-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: painsubject hasor equalequal toinjury
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsreceivedopenreceivepatients
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 66.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 248510 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 34483 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Ibuprofen Versus Acetaminophen vs Their Combination in the Relief of Musculoskeletal Pain in the Emergency Setting NCT01827475 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• Comparing Five Oral Analgesics for Treatment of Acute Pain in the Emergency Department (ED) NCT03173456 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
• Ibuprofen With or Without Acetaminophen for Low Back Pain NCT03554018 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• Magnesium-Based Trigger Point Injections for Relief of Chronic Myofascial Pelvic Pain NCT02728037 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials terminated
• Ketoprofen 10% Cream for Treatment of Pain Associated With Mild to Moderate Acute Soft Tissue Injury NCT00765700 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.