Phase III Study of Florbetaben (BAY94-9172) PET Imaging for Detection/Exclusion of Cerebral β-amyloid Compared to Histopathology

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: the subjectalzheimermribrainstroke
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluatehealthin clinicalacceptable
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: diagnostic (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluation of the Neuroinflammation Pattern of BAY85-8102 F-18, DPA-714 in Probable Alzheimers Disease Patients Versus Healthy Volunteers and Radiation Dosimetry of F 18, DPA-714 in Healthy Volunteers NCT01009359 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Phase II Study of Florbetaben (BAY 94-9172) PET Imaging for Detection/Exclusion of Cerebral β-amyloid in Patients With Probable Alzheimer's Disease Compared to Healthy Volunteers NCT00750282 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of the Diagnostic Potential of BAY1006578 in Probable Alzheimers Disease Patients Versus Healthy Volunteers and Radiation Dosimetry of BAY1006578 in Healthy Volunteers NCT01153607 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Study of Two Doses of 18F-AV-45 in Alzheimer's Disease and Healthy Volunteers NCT01565330 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Positron Emission Tomography (PET) Imaging of Brain Amyloid Compared to Post-Mortem Levels NCT01165554 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.