Intravenous BI 6727 (Volasertib) in 2nd Line Treatment of Urothelial Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-09-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientmetastaticbladderctchemotherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsthe trial20biinvestigator
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 198 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 86 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• BI 6727 (Volasertib) in Combination With Cisplatin or Carboplatin in Patients With Advanced or Metastatic Solid Tumour NCT00969761 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• Phase II Trial of Palbociclib in Patients With Metastatic Urothelial Cancer After Failure of First-Line Chemotherapy NCT02334527 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
• A Trial of Cabazitaxel for Advanced Transitional Cell Carcinoma (TCC) NCT01600339 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• A Open-label, Single-arm, Multicenter, Phase II Study of RC48-ADC to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Subjects With HER2 Overexpressing Locally Advanced or Metastatic Urothelial Cancer NCT03809013 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• Eribulin Mesylate Administered in Combination With Gemcitabine Plus Cisplatin Versus Gemcitabine Plus Cisplatin Alone as First-Line Therapy for Locally Advanced or Metastatic Bladder Cancer NCT01126749 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.