Phase II Trial of Palbociclib in Patients With Metastatic Urothelial Cancer After Failure of First-Line Chemotherapy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 32% for any early termination, 21% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-09-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ucmetastaticdose ofsurgerypatient
  Phrases that lowered it: aminotransferasepatients withevaluateinteractionprotocol
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 22% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 23 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 91.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of First-line Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) With Lenvatinib (MK-7902/E7080) in Urothelial Carcinoma Cisplatin-ineligible Participants Whose Tumors Express Programmed Cell Death-Ligand 1 and in Participants Ineligible for Platinum-containing Chemotherapy (MK-7902-011/E7080-G000-317/ LEAP-011) NCT03898180 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• Niraparib in Combination with Cabozantinib (XL184) in Patients with Advanced Urothelial Cancer (NICARAGUA) NCT03425201 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• A Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) Versus Paclitaxel, Docetaxel, or Vinflunine for Participants With Advanced Urothelial Cancer (MK-3475-045/KEYNOTE-045) NCT02256436 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• Intravenous BI 6727 (Volasertib) in 2nd Line Treatment of Urothelial Cancer NCT01023958 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• Gemcitabine, Cisplatin, Plus Lenalidomide as First-line Therapy for Patients With Metastatic Urothelial Carcinoma NCT01342172 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.