AMG 479 in Advanced Carcinoid and Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: tumorsto determinechroniccarcinomahepatitis
  Phrases that lowered it: groupbodylabelopenrespiratory
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 41 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 113 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• AMG 706 and Octreotide in Treating Patients With Low-Grade Neuroendocrine Tumors NCT00427349 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• A Study of XmAb®18087 in Subjects With NET and GIST NCT03411915 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy Study of AMG 820 and Pembrolizumab Combination in Select Advanced Solid Tumor Cancer NCT02713529 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• QUILT-2.014: Gemcitabine and AMG 479 in Metastatic Adenocarcinoma of the Pancreas NCT01231347 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Phase II Study of Avelumab in Metastatic Gastronetro-pancreatic （GEP） Neuroendocrine Carcinoma （NEC, WHO Grade 3） as Second-line Treatment After Failing to Etoposide+Cisplatin: Integration of Genomic Analysis to Identify Predictive Molecular Subtypes NCT03147404 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.