Phase II Study of Avelumab in Metastatic Gastronetro-pancreatic （GEP） Neuroendocrine Carcinoma （NEC, WHO Grade 3） as Second-line Treatment After Failing to Etoposide+Cisplatin: Integration of Genomic Analysis to Identify Predictive Molecular Subtypes

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-07-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: priormetastatictherapyradiationtumor
  Phrases that lowered it: participatedlesionsparticipatingclinicalparticipate
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 95 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 184 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Avelumab Treatment in Patients With Neuroendocrine Carcinomas (NEC G3) Progressive After Chemotherapy NCT03352934 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Avelumab in Third-Line Gastric Cancer (JAVELIN Gastric 300) NCT02625623 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• Study to Compare Irinotecan Combined With Cisplatin (IP) Versus Etoposide Combined With Cisplatin (EP) in Advanced and Metastatic Gastrointestinal Pancreatic and Esophageal Neuroendocrine Carcinoma NCT03168594 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials terminated
• Avelumab in First-Line Maintenance Gastric Cancer (JAVELIN Gastric 100) NCT02625610 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• Avelumab in G2-3 NET NCT03278379 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.