Study to Compare Irinotecan Combined With Cisplatin (IP) Versus Etoposide Combined With Cisplatin (EP) in Advanced and Metastatic Gastrointestinal Pancreatic and Esophageal Neuroendocrine Carcinoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-09-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cisplatintermcarcinomano priorchemotherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: pulmonaryobstructiveirinotecanhypertensiondisorder
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 72536 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 10200 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 18 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 25 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• IPO-NEC Trial:Study on the Efficacy and Safety Using Sequential IP Therapy and Oct Lar in the Treatment of Advanced GI NEC NCT01480986 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• Second-line Therapy for Patients With Progressive Poorly Differentiated Extra-pulmonary Neuroendocrine Carcinoma NCT03837977 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• Study of Irinotecan,Oxaliplatin, and S1 in Patients With Advanced Pancreatic Cancer NCT03726021 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• Phase II Study of Avelumab in Metastatic Gastronetro-pancreatic （GEP） Neuroendocrine Carcinoma （NEC, WHO Grade 3） as Second-line Treatment After Failing to Etoposide+Cisplatin: Integration of Genomic Analysis to Identify Predictive Molecular Subtypes NCT03147404 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Platinum-doublet Chemotherapy and Nivolumab for the Treatment of Subjects With Neuroendocrine Neoplasms (NENs) of the Gastroenteropancreatic (GEP) Tract or of Unknown (UK) Origin. NCT03980925 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.