A Study of Semagacestat for Alzheimer's Patients
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2011-04-30, after 2009-12-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: alzheimerstrokeadbaselineassociation
Phrases that lowered it: patients whosafety ofthe efficacyparticipantsparticipate in -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 3.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 55 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 156 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past trials: 433 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 55 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 433 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 3.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 156 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- semagacestat
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Effects of LY450139, on the Progression of Alzheimer's Disease as Compared With Placebo NCT00762411 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- Effect of LY450139 on the Long Term Progression of Alzheimer's Disease NCT00594568 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
- Open Label Study of ATH-1017 for Treatment of Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT04886063 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
- A Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of Lecanemab in Subjects With Early Alzheimer's Disease NCT01767311 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
- Continued Safety Monitoring of Solanezumab (LY2062430) in Alzheimer's Disease NCT01127633 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.