Trial of Erlotinib in Patients With JAK-2 V617F Positive Polycythemia Vera

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 32% for any early termination, 17% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientsdlmolecularstatusprimary
  Phrases that lowered it: study tohepaticbloodcriteria patient18
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 99 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 29.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 99.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 24 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 372 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate Sapablursen (Formerly ISIS 702843, IONIS-TMPRSS6-LRx) in Patients With Polycythemia Vera NCT05143957 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Large-scale Trial Testing the Intensity of CYTOreductive Therapy in Polycythemia Vera (PV) NCT01645124 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials terminated
• Ruxolitinib Efficacy and Safety in Patients With HU Resistant or Intolerant Polycythemia Vera vs Best Available Therapy. NCT02038036 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• Study to Determine the Safety and Efficacy of INCB018424 in Patients With Polycythemia Vera or Essential Thrombocythemia NCT00726232 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
• Expanded Treatment Protocol (ETP) of Ruxolitinib in Patients With Polycythemia Vera Who Were Hydroxyurea Resistant or Intolerant and for Whom no Treatment Alternatives Was Available. NCT02292446 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.