A Study to Evaluate Sapablursen (Formerly ISIS 702843, IONIS-TMPRSS6-LRx) in Patients With Polycythemia Vera
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 19% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2026-06-02, after 2021-12-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-06-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: therapypatientcancercarcinomaactive infection
Phrases that lowered it: participantsevaluate theto evaluateparticipantscreening -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: 90 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 21 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 57 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 90 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 57 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 5.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 21 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Large-scale Trial Testing the Intensity of CYTOreductive Therapy in Polycythemia Vera (PV) NCT01645124 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials terminated
- Trial of Erlotinib in Patients With JAK-2 V617F Positive Polycythemia Vera NCT01038856 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
- Study With SAR302503 in Patients With Polycythemia Vera or Essential Thrombocythemia NCT01420783 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
- Study to Assess the Self-administration of AOP2014 Using a Pen, Developed for the Treatment of Polycythemia Vera Patients NCT02523638 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
- Hepcidin Mimetic in Patients With Polycythemia Vera (REVIVE) NCT04057040 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.