Evaluation of Azacitidine in Transfusion Dependent Patients With Low-risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) or Chronic Myelomonocytic Leukemia (CMML)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subject hasserumrefractorytreatment withnew
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate themdsmgthe effecteffect of
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 41.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• 5-Azacitidine in Low-risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes (MDSs) NCT00897130 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Azacitidine Combined to Epoetin Beta in International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) Low-risk and Intermediate-1 Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) Patients, Resistant to Erythropoetin-stimulating Agents (ESA) NCT01015352 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
• SIMIDIS: Azacitidine and Beta Erythropoietin Treatment in Patients With Myelodysplastic Syndrome NCT00495547 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials terminated
• Study of Vidaza (Azacitidine) Versus Support Treatment in Patients With Low Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome (Low and Intermediate-1 IPSS) Without the 5q Deletion and Transfusion Dependent Anaemia NCT01338337 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Intensified Azacitidine in High Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) NCT01305460 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.