Cardio-cerebrovascular Disease and Aspirin Ulcer Relapse Evaluation
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 7% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2010-12-31, after 2008-08-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientsbrainvascularheart failuretreated
Phrases that lowered it: the efficacyjudgedevaluate theto evaluatesingle -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 72.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- not given (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 20 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 3 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 4 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 4670 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1013 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 72.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 8.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- gefarnate, rabeprazole
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Cytoprotective Agent and Peptic Ulcer in Dual Antiplatelet :RCT NCT02166008 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of PMK-S005 in the Prevention of Recurrent Peptic Ulcer in Low-dose Aspirin Users NCT02342470 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- Prevention of Recurrent Gastric or Duodenal Ulcers Caused by Low-dose Aspirin With Rabeprazole (E3810) Treatment (Planetarium Study) NCT01397448 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- ASP (PPI_H2RA) Study-H2RA Versus PPI for the Prevention of Recurrent UGIB in High-risk Users of Low-dose ASA NCT01408186 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
- Comparative Efficacy & Safety Study of D961H Versus Placebo for the Prevention of Gastric and Duodenal Ulcers With Low-dose Aspirin NCT01069939 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.