ASP (PPI_H2RA) Study-H2RA Versus PPI for the Prevention of Recurrent UGIB in High-risk Users of Low-dose ASA

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (90 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: acutebleedingriskassociatedtherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: historythe trialpylorigastricgastrointestinal
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 99 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 46 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 70.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 20466 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Cardio-cerebrovascular Disease and Aspirin Ulcer Relapse Evaluation NCT01051388 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Cytoprotective Agent and Peptic Ulcer in Dual Antiplatelet :RCT NCT02166008 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of TAK-438 for the Prevention of Recurrent Gastric or Duodenal Ulcers During Therapy of Low-dose Aspirin NCT01452763 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• A Multi-center, Double-blinding, Parallel and Positive-controlled Phase III Clinical Trial for Efficacy and Safety Evaluation of Ilaprazole Sodium for Injection on Prevention of Stress Ulcer Bleeding NCT05841394 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of PMK-S005 in the Prevention of Recurrent Peptic Ulcer in Low-dose Aspirin Users NCT02342470 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.