A Comparative Study of ASP1585 in Chronic Kidney Disease Patients With Hyperphosphatemia on Hemodialysis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 8% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (803 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2010-09-30, after 2010-01-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientscardiactumorsdiseasetreated
Phrases that lowered it: openhemodialysiskidneylabeldrug -
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 101 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past trials: 204 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 20 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 204 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 6.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 101 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 509 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 103 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 83.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 14.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- sevelamer
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Phase 2 Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of VS-505(AP301) to Treat Hyperphosphatemia in Hemodialysis Patients NCT04551300 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Long-term Study in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease and Hyperphosphatemia on Hemodialysis NCT00892749 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- Efficacy of SBR759 in Lowering Serum Phosphate Levels in Chronic Kidney Disease Patients on Hemodialysis NCT00704483 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
- Dose-Titration Study of Sevelamer Carbonate in Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) Patients on Hemodialysis NCT01736150 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
- Long-term Study in Chronic Kidney Disease Patients With Hyperphosphatemia Not on Dialysis NCT01742611 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.