A Study on the Safety and Immunogenicity of Combined Intradermal and Intravenous Administration of an Autologous mRNA Electroporated Dendritic Cell Vaccine in Patients With Previously Treated Unresectable Stage III or IV Melanoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientspetmelanomacttumor
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccinevaccinationsubjectthe studyimmunogenicity
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• mRNA Electroporated Autologous Dendritic Cells for Stage III/IV Melanoma NCT01676779 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Vaccination With Autologous Dendritic Cells Loaded With Autologous Tumor Lysate or Homogenate Combined With Immunomodulating Radiotherapy and/or Preleukapheresis IFN-alfa in Patients With Metastatic Melanoma: a Randomized Proof-of-principle Phase II Study NCT01973322 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Study of Vaccination With Poly-ICLC and Peptide-pulsed Dendritic Cells NCT01783431 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
• Trial for Vaccine Therapy With Dendritic Cells in Patients With Metastatic Malignant Melanoma NCT00961844 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Complementary Vaccination With Dendritic Cells Pulsed With Autologous Tumor Lysate in Resected Stage III and IV Melanoma Patients. NCT02718391 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.