Vaccination With Autologous Dendritic Cells Loaded With Autologous Tumor Lysate or Homogenate Combined With Immunomodulating Radiotherapy and/or Preleukapheresis IFN-alfa in Patients With Metastatic Melanoma: a Randomized Proof-of-principle Phase II Study

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-06-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patients musttumorstagemelanomaeligible
  Phrases that lowered it: days beforedailydiseasesclinical trialscreening
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Trial for Vaccine Therapy With Dendritic Cells in Patients With Metastatic Malignant Melanoma NCT00961844 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Evaluating the Safety and the Biological Effects of Intratumoral Interferon Gamma and a Peptide-Based Vaccine in Patients With Melanoma NCT00977145 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials terminated
• Combination Therapy of Topical Imiquimod Plus Multipeptide Vaccination for Cutaneous Metastases of Melanoma NCT01264731 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Study of a Multi-Antigen Therapeutic Vaccine in Patients With Metastatic Melanoma NCT00613509 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials terminated
• Safety Study of Adjuvant Vaccine to Treat Melanoma Patients NCT01079741 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.