Safety Study of Adjuvant Vaccine to Treat Melanoma Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-03-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: melanomapotentialof studyfirst dosedose of
  Phrases that lowered it: topicalopen labelstemhivskin
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 63.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Comparison of Matured Dendritic Cells and Montanide® in Study Subjects With High Risk of Melanoma Recurrence NCT02334735 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Trial for Vaccine Therapy With Dendritic Cells in Patients With Metastatic Malignant Melanoma NCT00961844 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Phase I/II Trial of a Long Peptide Vaccine (LPV7) Plus TLR Agonists NCT02126579 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• A Multipeptide Vaccine Plus Toll-Like Receptor Agonists in Melanoma Patients NCT01585350 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Study of a Multi-Antigen Therapeutic Vaccine in Patients With Metastatic Melanoma NCT00613509 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.