A Comparison of Matured Dendritic Cells and Montanide® in Study Subjects With High Risk of Melanoma Recurrence

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 31% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-07-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: melanomasubject hascancertherapyagent
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccinesubjectsinvestigatorvaccinationclinical
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 33.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety Study of Adjuvant Vaccine to Treat Melanoma Patients NCT01079741 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Immunotherapy of Melanoma With Tumor Antigen RNA and Small Inhibitory RNA Transfected Autologous Dendritic Cells NCT00672542 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Vaccine Combining Multiple Class I Peptides and Montanide ISA 51VG With Escalating Doses of Anti-PD-1 Antibody Nivolumab or Ipilimumab With Nivolumab For Patients With Resected Stages IIIC/ IV Melanoma NCT01176474 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• Trial for Vaccine Therapy With Dendritic Cells in Patients With Metastatic Malignant Melanoma NCT00961844 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Local Modulation of Immune Receptors to Enhance the Response to Dendritic Cell Vaccination in Metastatic Melanoma NCT01216436 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.